Review of REC markets
Report to Office of the Renewable Energy Regulator
McLennan Magasanik Associates Pty Ltd, 9 October 2007
PDF file
About this report
The Office of the Renewable Energy Regulator has invited McLennan Magasanik to undertake a project to forecast the price path of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), based on a forecast range of technology/fuel response scenarios to meet the 9,500 GWh target by 2010 as legislated by the Federal Government.
This document provides the assumptions used in the analysis and a discussion of the resulting REC price forecasts. The risk factors affecting the REC price on the spot market were defined through sensitivity analysis using a short term risk model. Forecasts are underpinned by the costs for renewable generation. The analysis is based on assumptions and policy environment as at late May 2007. Some recent announcements in regards to emissions trading and clean energy targets by the Federal Government may change the outlook contained in this report.
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